Happy new year.... and all that Jazz

Jan. 4, 2011

Hi all – This is not the 'oh my god I have got it all back' blog post I had hoped for. Its actually a hand that took place against a fellow pokerfarmer on the PLO tables.

Take a look at the Hand History here: http://weaktight.com/3057954

The player in question decided to have a go at me in chat regarding the river call. Now its no excuse but I've had a terrible start for Pokerfarm and can do nothing but lose money at the moment, Normally I don't react at all to chat but this time I got a bit annoyed - because it WAS a good call.... also I didn't realise he was a pokerfarmer at the time!

Lets go through my thought process:

Pre: I have a reasonably good hand to Iso-raise, I have Position, I'm not likely to get 3-bet, and if I do I can call; its also against a player who plays 36% of hands from UTG - therefore this should ALWAYS be an iso.

Flop: Well simply put we have gin; an OESD and NFD makes for a very simple bet (and a very simple get-it-in if raise); we fear no turn card (apart from the board pair). The $9 bet by me here is pretty standard when c-betting this type of board.

Turn: My bet sizing here is a little on the small side - the reason is that its highly unlikely I can get outdrawn. Opponent 'should' be raising made hands on this flop - although some (bad) opponents will check/call with top two or a set to see a good turn card and go for the check raise.

I think its worth discussing this concept in further detail: Now I can just as easily have air here - the problem from Villain's POV is simply that I'm only going to bet once on this sort of board when I don't have equity. Lets have a look at my hypothetical 'betting range' on various turn cards when opponent checks:

Flush Card hits: I'll be betting this if I have a J-hi flush or better, I'll be checking a smaller flush for pot control; and to allow opponent to bet worse on the river. I'll be betting air a lot here also.

Straight Card hits: I'll bet for value as I will have a straight. Mainly I have the nuts; if a T or J comes down AND villain raises we just play poker and proceed. I have outs!

Board Pairs: This might slow me down; but we don't figure opponent has it as he should have raised on the flop. If I bet, it is as a bluff, but only because we figure to get folds enough of the time to make the bet profitable. If its a Queen I check, a 9 and 3 I bet. If opponent raises I fold.

Any Other card: I keep betting as opponent doesn't figure to have a made hand; and when he does I have excellent equity and position.

The point I'm trying to put across is that villain is almost always doing the wrong thing by smooth calling the flop with a made hand here. Two pair or a set is extremely vulnerable on this board and I cannot get stacked when the board pairs. In fact when you put all of this together it should become clear that check/calling flop in Villains spot is almost invariably the wrong thing to do.

River: My opponent makes a quick-ish bet of $40 into a $64.5 pot. Now its simply time to play poker.. Q9 is a possibility; but not all that likely. A set of threes is also a slim possibility but I only have to be correct 28.5% of the time to make it the correct call. Given my 'reads' it makes sense that opponent likely has a lower flush and is turning his hand into a bluff

Try and think about it from Villains point of view – leave some comments.

Hope everyone has a good holiday season.

Tony